Working Papers
- "The political logic of hunger strikes"
- "Contentious political mobilization in post-conflict societies"
- "The dynamics of mass-killings in armed conflicts"
- "The contextual logic of military home deployment in autocracies" (with Christian Gläßel and Adam Scharpf).
- "Power personalization and specialists in violence under dictatorship" (with Mauricio Rivera Celestino and Scott Gates).
Projects
The political logic of hunger strikes
Hunger strikes are a frequent form of political protest. From Mahatma Gandhi during India’s campaign of independence to Alexei Navalny’s political imprisonment in Putin’s Russia, hunger strikes have played an important role in confronting the state throughout history. However, we know only little about the political logic that drives the decision of activists to refuse ingestion. Why and which dissident groups engage in this form of tactic? Is it effective in mobilizing support or obtaining political concessions? In this project, I answer these and other related questions by analyzing newly collected data on political hunger strikes. The ultimate goal of this project is to better understand the determinants, mechanisms, and consequences of hunger strikes as a contentious tactic.
Hunger strikes are a frequent form of political protest. From Mahatma Gandhi during India’s campaign of independence to Alexei Navalny’s political imprisonment in Putin’s Russia, hunger strikes have played an important role in confronting the state throughout history. However, we know only little about the political logic that drives the decision of activists to refuse ingestion. Why and which dissident groups engage in this form of tactic? Is it effective in mobilizing support or obtaining political concessions? In this project, I answer these and other related questions by analyzing newly collected data on political hunger strikes. The ultimate goal of this project is to better understand the determinants, mechanisms, and consequences of hunger strikes as a contentious tactic.
The Dynamics of Mass Protests (DMP): The Influence of Composition, Demands, and Tactics on Violent Outcomes
Principal Investigators: Belén González (University of Zurich), Nils Weidmann (University of Kosntanz), and Christian von Soest (GIGA)
Research Funds: German Research Foundation (DFG, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft) - Project Nummer: 514894404.
In recent years, the world has experienced an unprecedented number of mass protest events. Yet despite valuable research endeavours, one area that has not been systematically addressed is the conditions under which such protests turn violent. This is a significant limitation, as violent protests have serious detrimental effects: They harm people as well as infrastructure (e.g., Santiago de Chile 2019–20), erode trust between citizens and government (e.g., Gezi Park, Turkey 2013), and polarize societies (e.g., Charlottesville, USA 2017). To address this shortcoming, the Dynamics of Mass Protest (DMP) project studied the heterogeneous and dynamic nature of protests. It does so by systematically looking at characteristics within protest events. The project’s main objective is to answer: Why do some protests turn violent while others do not? To comprehensively understand this unexplained variation, we focus on within-protest composition, demands, and tactics and investigate the dynamics and heterogeneity of these protest characteristics. We do so by collecting and processing new within-protest event data between 2017 and 2021, which in turn will allow us to conduct a disaggregated comparative analysis of protest events.
Principal Investigators: Belén González (University of Zurich), Nils Weidmann (University of Kosntanz), and Christian von Soest (GIGA)
Research Funds: German Research Foundation (DFG, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft) - Project Nummer: 514894404.
In recent years, the world has experienced an unprecedented number of mass protest events. Yet despite valuable research endeavours, one area that has not been systematically addressed is the conditions under which such protests turn violent. This is a significant limitation, as violent protests have serious detrimental effects: They harm people as well as infrastructure (e.g., Santiago de Chile 2019–20), erode trust between citizens and government (e.g., Gezi Park, Turkey 2013), and polarize societies (e.g., Charlottesville, USA 2017). To address this shortcoming, the Dynamics of Mass Protest (DMP) project studied the heterogeneous and dynamic nature of protests. It does so by systematically looking at characteristics within protest events. The project’s main objective is to answer: Why do some protests turn violent while others do not? To comprehensively understand this unexplained variation, we focus on within-protest composition, demands, and tactics and investigate the dynamics and heterogeneity of these protest characteristics. We do so by collecting and processing new within-protest event data between 2017 and 2021, which in turn will allow us to conduct a disaggregated comparative analysis of protest events.
Former Projects
Repression and the Escalation of Violence (RATE)
European Research Council 336019, Principal Investigator: Sabine C. Carey, University of Mannheim. The aim of this project is to explain the escalation and non-escalation of repression and intra-state armed conflict by analysing how characteristics of the government and its formal and informal security apparatus shape the dynamics of such violence. I am participating in the project as a post-doctoral researcher.
Field work & Case Studies RATE Project
Analyzing specific countries, we want to figure out why violence did not escalate despite high potential to do so, focusing in particular on the role of the security apparatus. The first case study will be used to help us develop and refine our expectations on why this might be the case. These expectations will be put to the test in additional case studies later in the project.
Perception of peace in post-war societies: Georgia, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
Based on our quantitative research and our first case study at RATE, we are developing three case studies to assess in more detail how the re-escalation of conflict could be prevented and how the nature and quality of post-conflict peace is perceived by society. Generating new survey data, supplemented with semi-structure interviews, we investigate how the media and armed forces shape these perceptions in Georgia, Nepal and Sri Lanka. The surveys and field work interviews will be completed in 2018.
Chile: A transition from repressive military regime to secure democracy
We focus on a country that experienced widespread repression, also perpetrated by irregular forces, but then managed to establish good human rights records and that did not suffer from an armed conflict for at least a decade. We use Chile as our case study since it suffered extensive repression under Pinochet, but then turned into a democracy with good human rights records and, particularly compared to its neighbours, low crime rates. In the 1988 referendum, the Chilean electorate voted against extending Pinochet's role as president and in 1989 Patricio Aylwin of the Concertación was elected president. Why did the military not step in to turnover the outcome of the referendum or the elections? Why did the division among society between pro- and anti-military supporters not lead to violence between them? How did the shadow of the military shape the behaviour of the new government? What compromises were made, for example on how to treat previous human rights violations, to avoid a resurgence of violence? We carried out interviews with many individuals from different positions that were involved in the transition in Chile in October 2015. A paper based on our findings will be posted shortly.
European Research Council 336019, Principal Investigator: Sabine C. Carey, University of Mannheim. The aim of this project is to explain the escalation and non-escalation of repression and intra-state armed conflict by analysing how characteristics of the government and its formal and informal security apparatus shape the dynamics of such violence. I am participating in the project as a post-doctoral researcher.
Field work & Case Studies RATE Project
Analyzing specific countries, we want to figure out why violence did not escalate despite high potential to do so, focusing in particular on the role of the security apparatus. The first case study will be used to help us develop and refine our expectations on why this might be the case. These expectations will be put to the test in additional case studies later in the project.
Perception of peace in post-war societies: Georgia, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
Based on our quantitative research and our first case study at RATE, we are developing three case studies to assess in more detail how the re-escalation of conflict could be prevented and how the nature and quality of post-conflict peace is perceived by society. Generating new survey data, supplemented with semi-structure interviews, we investigate how the media and armed forces shape these perceptions in Georgia, Nepal and Sri Lanka. The surveys and field work interviews will be completed in 2018.
Chile: A transition from repressive military regime to secure democracy
We focus on a country that experienced widespread repression, also perpetrated by irregular forces, but then managed to establish good human rights records and that did not suffer from an armed conflict for at least a decade. We use Chile as our case study since it suffered extensive repression under Pinochet, but then turned into a democracy with good human rights records and, particularly compared to its neighbours, low crime rates. In the 1988 referendum, the Chilean electorate voted against extending Pinochet's role as president and in 1989 Patricio Aylwin of the Concertación was elected president. Why did the military not step in to turnover the outcome of the referendum or the elections? Why did the division among society between pro- and anti-military supporters not lead to violence between them? How did the shadow of the military shape the behaviour of the new government? What compromises were made, for example on how to treat previous human rights violations, to avoid a resurgence of violence? We carried out interviews with many individuals from different positions that were involved in the transition in Chile in October 2015. A paper based on our findings will be posted shortly.
Effective Non-Violence? Resistance and Political Outcomes
Project 402234 - Conditions of Violence and Peace Research Department, PRIO. Principal Investigators: Kristian S Gleditsch, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), University of Essex, University of Maryland. In this project, we collect a new data set that identifies organizations articulating maximalist claims against the government. We examine how social structures and individual resources affect collective action and the development of military capacity.
Project 402234 - Conditions of Violence and Peace Research Department, PRIO. Principal Investigators: Kristian S Gleditsch, Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), University of Essex, University of Maryland. In this project, we collect a new data set that identifies organizations articulating maximalist claims against the government. We examine how social structures and individual resources affect collective action and the development of military capacity.
Collaborations
Mapuche Data Project (MDP)
I am a Research Associate to the MDP since 2018. The MDP has as the main goal to identify, digitize, compile, process and harmonize quantitative information regarding the Mapuche People. The project includes historical and contemporary databases in a series of economic, political and social dimensions. In particular, MDP presents the first harmonized base on episodes of the conflict between the Mapuche people and the Chilean state for the recent period 1990-2016.
Access: https://mapuchedataproject.cl
I am a Research Associate to the MDP since 2018. The MDP has as the main goal to identify, digitize, compile, process and harmonize quantitative information regarding the Mapuche People. The project includes historical and contemporary databases in a series of economic, political and social dimensions. In particular, MDP presents the first harmonized base on episodes of the conflict between the Mapuche people and the Chilean state for the recent period 1990-2016.
Access: https://mapuchedataproject.cl
Archigos 4.o
I contributed to the new Version 4.0 of Archigos (a data set of leaders) 1875 – 2014. The Political Instability Task Force contributed financial support.
Access: https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/data.htm
I contributed to the new Version 4.0 of Archigos (a data set of leaders) 1875 – 2014. The Political Instability Task Force contributed financial support.
Access: https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/data.htm